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Phases Tutorial

The ETF Active Trader is designed to monitor and find trading opportunities on a select list of Index, Regional, and Country ETFs. The trade setups are based on MarketGauge’s market phases. Over the course of a market cycle, each ETF will be in one of these six phases and different trading opportunities present themselves based on transitions between the phases.

Bullish Phase:
This is where the 50 and 200 day moving averages are positively sloped and the 50 DMA is stacked on top of the 200 DMA. The final condition is that the price is above both of these moving averages. A transition into a bullish phase is a potential “all clear” for an upward move. The price and moving averages all offer support for a further move up.

Warning Phase:
A warning phase is where the 50 and 200 DMA remain positively stacked but the price has punctured the 50 DMA. In a really strong trending market, it may be best seen as a correction that is an opportunity when it returns to a bull phase, but if the trend is flat or rolling over then it is a much more serious warning and even a potential opportunity to short.

Distribution Phase:
When the market is in a warning phase and price action persists downward, eventually it will start to drag the quicker 50 DMA down with it. This period can represent an important potential market shift depending on which direction the market goes from here. A move of the 50 DMA below the 200 DMA signals a more negative phase while if the 50 DMA can remain above the 200 DMA there is the potential for a phase improvement.

Bearish Phase:
A bearish phase is the most negative of all the phases. Both the 50 DMA and 200 DMA are negative and the 50 DMA is below the 200 DMA. Everything is in gear for a continuation move lower. A transition into a bear phase is a great potential short situation.

Recovery Phase:
A transition into a recovery phase represents the first signs that the long winter for the stock or ETF might be over. While the moving averages are still negatively stacked, the price has moved over the 50 DMA and the 50 DMA is starting to flatten out. Depending on the severity of the bearish move, a transition to a recovery phase could present early long opportunities, however, a phase transition failure could represent a temporary bounce back before a continued move lower.

Accumulation Phase:
Following a successful continuation through a recovery phase, the market enters an accumulation phase. Here the price has moved above the 200 DMA. The 200 DMA has flattened out and the 50 DMA is aggressively moving to a positive slope. Whenever the price crosses the major 200 DMA it can signal a long-term trend change and can present great long trade possibilities.